Brad Setser on Global Trade Imbalance and the Dollar | Subtext by Zerodha

Open a free demat and trading account online at Zerodha: https://zerodha.com/open-account/?c=ZAPVVI Brad W. Setser, Senior Fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations and one of the most respected voices on global capital flows, joins us for a wide-ranging conversation on what is driving the dollar today, why China's export boom is a problem for the whole world, and what happens if the AI bubble bursts. We talk about: The sources of dollar strength over history How AI chip dollars and AI memory dollars are replacing petrodollars The AI investment boom and its impact on global capital flows China's trade surplus and what the state should actually do about it Trump's trade war — what worked and what didn't Whether export-led growth still makes sense in today's world A must-watch for anyone trying to make sense of global macro. Timestamps: 0:00 Promo 1:13 State of the World: Oil, AI, China 3:25 History of the Dollar 6:00 AI Boom & Capital Flows into the US 9:42 If the AI Bubble Bursts — Impact on the Dollar 9:42 Strait of Hormuz Crisis & Oil Markets 15:54 Why Surplus Countries Drive Dollar Demand 26:52 What China Should Actually Do to Fix Imbalances 30:21 China's Export Dominance & the Manufacturing Squeeze 34:58 Future of Export-Led Growth 40:39 Trump's Trade Policy 43:53 US-China Coalition — Is It Dead? 46:19 Trump-Xi Summit — Who Has the Leverage? 53:16 Brad's Experience as a Policymaker 56:41 How Trade Gets Rerouted Around Tariffs