Monday, August 3, 2026 | 🌙 U. S. Evening Market Update

Bitcoin is near $63.4K and near flat on the 24h read, even as equities strengthened, volatility fell, and USDX eased. The U.S. 10Y yield remained higher at the start of the week. Bitcoin is about $700 above this morning’s Daily Pulse checklist. The main themes are record DEX spot-trading share, a pivotal CLARITY Act week, and reports involving a former FBI agent charged in connection with crypto theft. The key tension: Broader risk signals look constructive, but Bitcoin is near flat on the 24h read as higher yields, legal headlines, and policy discussion remain active. Market check: • BTC: $63,435 (24h: -0.01%) • BTC dominance: 56.4% • USDX: 25.47 (-0.27%) • US 10Y: 4.75% (7 bps) • SPY: 757.67 (1.42%) • VIX: 15.99 (-6.44%) Scenario watch: 🟢 Bull case: Bitcoin moves away from its near-flat 24h read as stronger equities, lower volatility, and a softer USDX remain supportive. ⚪ Base case: Bitcoin stays near $63.4K while the market weighs the higher-yield backdrop against active policy and legal headlines. 🔴 Bear case: Higher yields and renewed focus on legal or policy risk become the stronger near-term signals. Into the next cycle, we’re watching: • Asia/Tokyo: Whether Bitcoin stays near $63.4K as early-week liquidity responds to the broader constructive risk backdrop. • London: Whether the record DEX trading-share report and CLARITY Act discussion remain central to the market-structure narrative. • New York: Whether stronger equities and lower volatility can continue alongside the higher U.S. 10Y yield and Bitcoin’s near-flat 24h read. Clean read for now: The broader risk backdrop is constructive, but Bitcoin remains near flat as yield, legal, and policy questions stay in focus.