Your Retirement Portfolio Return Assumptions Are Too High - Do This Instead

Your retirement income plan may assume a portfolio growth rate of about 10% a year. But major investment firms — Vanguard, J.P. Morgan, BlackRock, Schwab, and others — are now projecting closer to 3% to 7% for U.S. stocks over the NEXT decade. ========= 📋 FREE DOWNLOAD: 15 Retirement Planning Checklists (same ones we use with clients) → https://www.covenantwealthadvisors.com/retirement-checklist 🗓️ WORK WITH US: https://www.covenantwealthadvisors.com/free-retirement-plan ========= In this video, Mark Fonville, CFP®, shows you why the 10% growth rate assumption is so dangerous near retirement, what number to use instead for your portfolio growth rate, and four moves to build a plan that survives a lower-return world. You'll learn: • What "Capital Market Assumptions" are — and what the biggest firms actually project for the next 10 years • Why high stock valuations (the CAPE ratio near 40 vs. a long-run normal around 16) point to lower future returns • Why an over-optimistic return assumption is far riskier at 63 than at 33 (sequence-of-returns risk) • The three things — investor behavior, taxes, and fees — that quietly lower your real return • A prudent planning number for a balanced retirement portfolio: closer to 5% than 10% • How to stress-test your plan at lower returns so you can retire with confidence Expected returns are not predictions or guarantees. They are simply reasonable planning assumptions to consider when applying a growth rate to your money throughout retirement. The expected returns you use in your planning projections should be based on your personal situation. Source of return projections: https://www.morningstar.com/markets/experts-forecast-stock-bond-returns-2026-edition —————————————— CHAPTERS: 0:00 – Why 10% Returns Could Break Your Retirement Plan 1:04 – Where the 10% Return Assumption Comes From 2:23 – What Wall Street Actually Projects: Vanguard, JP Morgan, BlackRock, Schwab 4:13 – Why Future Returns Will Be Lower (The CAPE