Week 7: How are things trending? Forming expectations with Muth and Sterman

From an article by John Sterman in 1986. - EXPECTATION FORMATION IN BEHAVIORAL SIMULATION MODELS, Sterman (1986), https://systemdynamics101.com/notes/sterman-1986-behavioral-expectations-formation.pdf John Sterman develops the model as well in Business Dynamics, p. 634-643, with case studies following the baseline model. Here is an implementation of the model to highlight the character of initial conditions, and a switch to modify the initial present perceived present condition to change with changing inputs. Notes on behavioral expectation formation: https://systemdynamics101.com/notes/notes-sterman-1986-expectation-formation.pdf The Vensim implementation is here: https://systemdynamics101.com/models/sterman-1986-expectation-formation-behavioral-simulation.mdl

Added 25 Jun 2026