The Fed’s Path to 2026 Depends on These Two Data Points

By combining views from Paulson, Schmid, and Goolsbee, a clear picture of the Fed’s internal strategy emerges. The bar for rate cuts is higher than markets often assume, but the Fed isn’t ruling them out either. Everything hinges on whether inflation shows real improvement and whether labor market cooling turns into deterioration. Political influence over the Fed could also impact long-term Treasury yields, even if short-term rates move lower. #FederalReserve #interestrates #inflation #laborMarket #bonds

Added 16 May 2026