The Impact of AI on US Productivity with Nick Bloom | Markus Academy | Ep. 159

Follow the link for the full summary: https://markusacademy.substack.com/p/impact-of-ai-on-us-productivity Link to sign up for the webinar series: https://markusacademy.substack.com/ On Thursday, February 19, Nick Bloom joined Markus’ Academy for a conversation on the impact of AI on US productivity. Nick Bloom is the William Eberle Professor of Economics at Stanford University, a Senior Fellow of the Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research, and the Co-Director of the Productivity, Innovation and Entrepreneurship program at NBER. A summary in four bullets: ● We see an extremely wide range of forecasts for AI’s growth impact—from Dario Amodei (2026), who projects 10–20% annual growth, to Daron Acemoglu (2025), who estimates 0.5% total additional growth over a decade. ● Given the uncertainty and the lack of clear historical precedents, managers’ expectations may be our best available data ● In their recent working paper, Nicholas Bloom and coauthors (2026) leverage existing central bank surveys to ask 6,000 executives about AI ● They document four facts: 1. 70% of firms use AI 2. 75% of executives use AI, with an average 1.5 hours per week 3. AI has had little impact on employment and productivity in the last 3 years 4. AI is expected to double productivity growth over the next 3 years Timestamps: [08:41] A new age of productivity growth? [19:05] What is the current data on firm AI use? [24:58] The survey [29:29] Results on firms’ AI use [43:39] Employment effects and employee responses