Is China Facing a Lost Decade? Alicia García-Herrero on Real Estate, India & The New Cold War. EP 7

In this lightning round we ask: Is the "China Model" broken? In this episode of Beating Sisyphus, hosts Thomas Riveros and Lourdes Casanova sit down with Alicia García-Herrero (Chief Economist for Asia Pacific at Natixis and Senior Fellow at Bruegel) to analyze the economic realities behind China's rise—and its current state. From the "implicit social contract" that allowed Beijing to channel massive savings into growth, to the slow-motion crash of the real estate sector, Alicia provides a masterclass on why China’s model is not replicable. She also explains why the world is drifting toward a bipolar Cold War order and why India (and potentially Europe) might be the only forces capable of keeping the global economy multipolar. Key Topics Discussed: 🇨🇳 The China Model: Why high savings and "repressed consumption" fueled the miracle (and why it can't last). 🏗️ Real Estate Crisis: Why there was no "Lehman Moment" but a "Japan-style" slow bleed instead. 🇮🇳 India’s Role: Why Alicia believes India is the critical player in preventing a US-China bipolar world. 🇪🇺 Europe's Future: Can the EU get its act together to join India in a "square" of global powers? About the Guest: Alicia García-Herrero is the Chief Economist for Asia Pacific at Natixis. She also serves as a Senior Fellow at the European think-tank BRUEGEL and as an advisor to the Spanish Government and the Hong Kong Monetary Authority. Timestamps 00:00 – Intro: Welcome Alicia Garcia-Herrero 00:30 – Why Emerging Markets are more exciting than the West 01:40 – The "Century of Humiliation" & China’s drive to return 04:28 – Why the "China Model" is not replicable (The Secret of Excess Savings) 07:45 – What other countries CAN learn from China (Vocational Education) 09:58 – The Real Estate Crisis: Why no "Lehman Moment"? 11:50 – Is China facing "Japanification"? (Deflation without a crash) 12:15 – Why India is the "Last Hope" for a Multipolar World 13:45 – Can Europe join India to break the US-China binary? 14:38 – Closing: Finding optimism in a fragmented world

Added 28 May 2026