What this war will really cost us (the Wolfers' Cut)

The Pentagon said the war with Iran has cost Americans $25 billion. But that number only accounts for missiles fired and equipment destroyed. The true cost of war is measured by the future we’ve given up. In this video — my Director’s Cut of an Op-Ed I wrote last week for the New York Times — I explain why that figure is dangerously misleading and show you the math for a less precise, but far more honest answer. Using the economic concept of opportunity cost, I walk through six methods for calculating the war’s real price tag, tracing the clues through oil, interest rates, geopolitical risk, the stock market, GDP, and future defense budgets. Each of these prove that this war is not costing tens of billions — but hundreds of billions, and quite possibly trillions. Every number answers a question, and the Pentagon's $25 billion answers a very small one. Here, I'm asking the bigger one: compared to the world we had before this war, what have we lost? The answer should concern every American household. Chapters: 2:17 What the cost of war really includes 4:01 Start with oil 5:15T The monetary policy estimate7:21 The geopolitical risk estimate 8:25 The stock market estimate 10:26 The broad macro forecast 11:53 The costs may keep growing 13:48 Why boring distinctions matter NYT Op-Ed: https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/08/opinion/hegseth-war-cost.html