Clarida Gives RenMac Clarity: RenMac Off-Script*

Former Fed Vice Chair Rich Clarida joins the RenMac Off-Script team to discuss the evolving Fed reaction function amid a potential transition to a Warsh-led regime and why markets are struggling to price policy. The team breaks down how Middle East developments and energy prices complicate rate cuts, why underlying inflation may be softer than headline data suggests, and how AI-driven productivity could create conflicting pressures on growth, inflation, and rates. They also explore rising fragility in equities, the role of real rates as the key market driver, and why the current rally lacks the breadth and conviction needed for a durable move higher. Subscribe to our newsletter: https://go.renmac.com/newsletter Request a trial of our research (for professional money managers) https://start.renmac.com/trial Sign up for our research (for individual investors): https://renmacaccess.com/ Get merch at https://renmacmerch.com Here is the link to Richard Clarida's YouTube Playlist: https://youtube.com/playlist?list=OLAK5uy_lnCLn6-Uhztz_cQ-cmRuxK2AD20GmWW7g&si=CBT1QsbdjIynL7oi (0:00) - Welcome, Disclaimer & Off-Script Intro (1:04) - Host Introductions & Guest Intro (Rich Clarida) (3:20) - Fed Reaction Function: Powell vs. Warsh Debate (8:00) - Rate Path Expectations & Middle East Risk (10:30) - Inflation Trends: Core vs. Trim Mean (14:36) - Fed Credibility & Waller Discussion (17:00) - Warsh Nomination Timeline & Senate Dynamics (22:41) - Treasury–Fed Coordination & Balance Sheet Strategy (29:04) - Bond Market Moves, Auctions & Real Rates (32:05) - Fed Inflation Framework & “2-Point-Something” Targeting (36:54) - AI Impact on Growth, Inflation & Rates (40:41) - Productivity, Wages & Labor Market Dynamics (45:04) - Mailbag: TIPS & Inflation Hedging (47:26) - Equity Market Breadth & Rally Assessment (51:56) - What to Watch: Geopolitics, IMF & Fed Timing (54:52) - Housing Market Pressure & Macro Sentiment (58:06) - Market Internals, Sector Leadership & Positioning (1:00:51) - Closing Remarks